Friday, September 17, 2010

THE WEEK TO COME: NFL WEEK 2 PREVIEW

If you had any stock in Kevin Kolb, week 1 was a disaster for you.  I personally expected Kolb to be this year's newly anointed superstar.  Maybe week 3 can help with that.  My game picks were a mediocre 10-6, good enough to make the playoffs or even win the NFC West by 6 games, but not exactly Super Bowl contending material.  I was correct in saying you should have started every offensive player you could in the Houston v. Indy game but then bizarrely highlighted Philadelphia against Green Bay.  Be careful what you do with this opinformation I'm giving you.  Remember, these are not picks against the spread just straight up winners & losers. Just understand what you're getting from the comedy corporation.



SUN, SEP 19Pittsburgh at Tennessee
Pittsburgh eeked out a shitty win in week 1. I don’t think my 6-10 is going to come true for them but there’s still time. Chris Johnson might be the truth and I’m definitely a fan. Mr. Heisman-Runner-Up to (Redacted) has turned it all the way around, I believe. I can’t pick the Steelers and that’s probably more my heart than my head but Dennis Dixon vs. the Titans? Remember the Titans?
Miami at Minnesota
This is a weird game because on the face of it the Vikings should win easily. But they looked rough last week against the Saints and the Dolphins are a decent team. I’m calling it a win for Miami and a ton of over-reaction for the Vikings. The best play in this game is probably Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams but I don’t know which one and you don’t either. Favre and Henne will both be OK but I would be surprised if there’s a lot of offense in this game.
Arizona at Atlanta
Here’s where the offense will be. Look for Matt Ryan to have his best game ever. And the defenses aren’t bad, keep in mind, it’s just that these two teams will try to engage each other in a track meet. I’m guessing, obviously, because there isn’t a lot of data to go on, but I think the over is a good bet and the stud WRs will all be good plays, as will Michael Turner.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
This game will be terrible. Look at the Jets game last week and expect almost the same everything from the Ravens this week. I’m sitting Ced Benson where I own him, so I’ll be looking for a 200-yd, 6 TD performance out of him.
Kansas City at Cleveland
This one actually should be pretty fun to watch. It should be good for about 500 yds of rushing combined for the two teams since they are both loaded at RB and horrible at QB.
Chicago at Dallas
Dallas is the perfect team to choke out a loss here but I bet the Bears won’t let them. I’m going all in with the Cowboys players from a fantasy perspective. I won’t look up the line but I’d take the Cowboys and the under, just on a gut feeling. Line’s probably 22 with an over/under of 23.

Philadelphia at Detroit
Vick vs. the Lions. Vick's more familiar with fighting against dogs but this time around he won't end up in prison. Philly rightfully gets the highlight this week and Vick will probably be the permanent starter by the end of week 3. I might like to see this game but will probably go frolic with puppies or buy a balloon instead. It's Sunday, you know? You gotta take advantage of your times off.

Buffalo at Green Bay
I didn't mean to pick against Green bay last week.  I'm not sure why I did. They should be able to score 50 this week, so use your Packers players wisely. If you are starting even a single Buffalo Bill, right down to whoever is kicking for them, you are losing.

Tampa Bay at Carolina
Awful Bowl 2010. They play each other twice a year so... I don't know. Avoid this game twice a year? I love KII. He's good. Supposedly Matt Moore is good but I have no reason to believe it and I don't feel the need to find out if it's true at this point. Maybe when it's colder.

Seattle at Denver
This is the most boring seeming thing I could do with a Sunday afternoon. The Squawks wrecked the 49ers last week but the Bills have had a bunch of great starts to seasons in the last 10 years and they never left the basement level of the league's standings. I'm starting Kyle Orton this week, I'll tell you that much. Keep an eye on Deon Butler for Seattle. If he gets more than 1 target a game he might score more than 1 TD. I'm also interested to see if the fat Mike Williams is now a legitimate NFL player or if Pete Carroll just gave him the looks in week 1 to fuck with him later on. Denver will win forever on Petey in this game.

St. Louis at Oakland
The Battle of Los Angeles! Darren McFadden had his best game of the year last week so look for Michael Bush to get the carries this week. I didn't mean DMC had his best game so far, I'm counting on that being the best game he has all year. Sam Bradford looked good last week but threw a bunch of INTs. I think he'll be a good pro but, for this year, he's going to continue to toss those INTs around like business cards.

Houston at Washington
This is a fascinating match up. The perhaps entirely lumpen Washington Redskins aren't built very well for very many matchups in the NFL but I think they can handle the Texans fairly well. Except for Andre Johnson. That guy needs to make up for last week. I really don't know if anyone is worth a start on the Redskins. I'm picking them to get their second straight upset before the losing kicks in.

New England at NY Jets
New England wins easily and they only win one way, so figure Wes Welker and Randy Moss both go for 120+ yds in addition to whatever other yards the other skill guys get so figure for yourself what that means for Brady's numbers, Einstein. After 2 weeks, the Champs will be 0-2 with 2 conference losses, 2 home losses and an 0-1 divisional record.  Let's hear it for the champs!

Jacksonville at San Diego
I'm tempted to take the Alualu's. Jacksonville might not reach the dregs this year. They might not. Ryan Mathews is going to get his yards, though. David Garrard is not entirely awfulness. He's not even really bad but he's also noot great. Doesn't he have Croehn's or something? I think he does. Something like that. Hurray for him being a hero. I'm just delaying for myself the final decision I must make. Forget it - I'm going with another road team.

NY Giants at Indianapolis
For all the annoyance that will be created by Eli vs. Peyton (what's the drill with those Peyton is injured rumors, btw?) this looks like one of the best regular season matchups possible this year. I hate the Giants but I think they're the only NY/NJ team with a shot at playing in this year's Super Bowl. I really like their offensive personnel. The Colts are letting their dominance slip away by having Jim Caldwell coaching the team. They'll string it along OK this season if Peyton holds up. But they are on some rotten ice. The Giants could rush for about 300 yds in this game.


MON, SEP 20New Orleans at San Francisco
My heart's not in this pick at all. New Orleans makes me like the NFL but San Francisco was my preseason league shocker pick. Looks like the 49ers are going to be the ones getting fisted, however, by the league. They might like that, who knows?, but you don't have to stand for it. Poor organization in the 49ers offices let the whole offseason go by without grabbing Donovan McNabb or Jason Campbell while they were available. The defense is great but might get burned by bad offense. At least until the OC is gone. This won't be the blowout week 1 made it seem like it should be but the Saints shouldn't have to sweat too much, either. Pierre Thomas ftw.

Good night and good luck with your fantasy and gambling strategies.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

College Football WEEK 3 - The Worst Week of the Season

Horrible week for me last week. I went 51-19 (118-31 overall) and the Hurricanes looked downright fraudulent in what will apparently be their only regular season game against a legit power team. I think we can write off Pitt and FSU at this point. North Carolina and Georgia Tech are damaged goods, as well. Navy is struggling and a Michigan guy is the clear-cut early season zeitgeist-grabbing player. I don’t really have anything against Michigan but I wish I could believe in Denard Robinson to last the whole season and I wish I could expect a little better team record for a Heisman contender. The Wolverines are gonna lose 5. The ACC and the Big East are looking like the dregs of college football right now. I still don’t have much of a grasp on what to expect from week to week. One of my losses from last week stands out. I wrote about Hawaii beating Army but highlighted the service academy. Army lost (but only by 3 points!), of course, but it goes on the wrong side of the ledger for me and my record.


Thursday, September 16
Cincinnati at North Carolina State – Remember back in the last decade when this would have been an easy pick? Now both teams are awful. Conundrum’d.
Friday, September 17
Kansas at Southern Miss – Sort of interesting game. Both teams are a little weak but could hang around enough to play in their conference title game. Did I just write that? Yep. It won’t happen for Kansas but they’re probably not going to be too bad by the end of the year. I think they’re in the shit half of the Big XII.
California at Nevada – If I get a chance to watch this game I’m taking it. This has strong 100+ point potential (between the two teams – maybe for Berkeley by themselves) and I want to watch Colin Kaepernick because he’s going on the next Heisman list for me when I get around to writing it.
Saturday, September 18
Ohio at No. 2 Ohio State – Buckeyes bore me to tears. Why do they win so much? I hate them.
No. 12 Arkansas at Georgia – Arkansas hasn’t been ranked this highly without being a fraud at any time that I can remember. They’re still fugazi and Ryan Mallett is a piece of shit. Bark on ‘em, Dawgs.
Massachusetts at No. 20 Michigan – Second year in a row Michigan reaches 4-0 before the rug gets pulled out from under them.
Maryland at No. 21 West Virginia – It’s on the schedule so I guess they’re really gonna play it. I want to like both of these teams and I still can’t do it. Noel Devine needs to bust out for a 400 yd game at this point to be back on anybody’s radar.
Kent State at No. 22 Penn State – Penn State got smushed by Alabama and, in the process, proved nothing to me about themselves or their opponent. I guess they’ll win here but they could still go 6-6 without surprising me.
Georgia Tech at North Carolina – Shitastic. Carolina is a mess so of course they’ll have their best season since Mack Brown was there.
Connecticut at Temple – OK, Pierce, I’m fucking sick of this. Run wild or just quit. You’re good at quitting so that should be easy for you.
North Texas at Army – Woohoo!
Northern Illinois at Illinois – Zook!
Iowa State vs. Kansas State* - HP has this K State guy up on the list. I’ll reserve judgment for a few weeks but I hope he’s as good as his early draft reports.
Ball State at Purdue – Fuck you, Marve.
Vanderbilt at Mississippi – Ole’ Miss can definitely find a way to lose even this one.
East Carolina at Virginia Tech – In my gut I see the Hokies 0-3. I’m siding with my intellect and giving them the win.
No. 1 Alabama at Duke – TV deals are awesome because games like this end up being televised nationally.
Air Force at No. 7 Oklahoma – I would choose this over most of these games if I am given the option.
No. 8 Nebraska at Washington – Nebraska can delay their own fraud tour one more week in order to cancel the notion that Jake Locker deserves to play in the NFL.
No. 10 Florida at Tennessee – This used to be my favorite game of the year in the Spurrier Era.
Arizona State at No. 11 Wisconsin – John Clay needs to stop sucking in a hurry if he wants to make my preseason Heisman pick look good.
No. 18 USC at Minnesota – Why did USC schedule this game? Nothing good can come of this.
Hawaii at Colorado – Hawaii travels a lot.
Brigham Young at Florida State – Boy. Hmmm. FSU is bad. Still picking them.
Colorado State at Miami (OH)
Washington State at Southern Methodist – I don’t know if there was ever a time when both of these teams were good. Neither of them is good now, but Washington State is a laughingstock.
Troy at UAB
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan
Baylor at No. 4 TCU – TCU is at least as big of a fraud as Boise but they will not be called out on it. If this team gets to the NC game look for them to get their brains bashed in.
Indiana at Western Kentucky
Louisville at No. 25 Oregon State – Awful game. I feel sorry for people that watch this.
Portland State at No. 5 Oregon – Oregon will run the score up as they’ve shown in both of their games so far. This game might be the most distant point of a karmic boomerang.
Furman at No. 13 South Carolina - See ya later, Saunders.
Mississippi State at No. 15 LSU - I'm kind of not gonna be very surprised if I get this game wrong.  LSU is kind of crummy.  Did you see where I had the Gators choking against UT?  The only reason I'm not picking the upset here is because I only expect one in the SEC this week.  But one is just the cap I'm setting.
Clemson at No. 16 Auburn - Cam Newton for Heisman gets a big boost this week before going away very shortly.
Akron at Kentucky - What the hell is this game doing taking up time and resources that could be used for literally anything else?
San Diego State at Missouri - Missouri should win. I'm still not picking them.
Marshall at Bowling Green - Marshall could win here and turn some kind of corner in... whatever conference it is that Marshall currently competes in. I would bet the opposite.
Tulsa at Oklahoma State - This is a great opportunity for a man named Kendall to boost his national stock in a non-TV game. 300 yds or bust, buddy.
Middle Tennessee at Memphis
Northwestern at Rice - Dreg on dreg violence. This horrible season might end up with the Big 10 the best conference in the land. Just for this one season!
Florida International at Texas A&M - Let's go FIU... Internationals? I've no idea what they are. They're losers, I know that much, but nothing else.
UCF at Buffalo - Buffalo is dead to me! You hear me? Infestation!
Navy at Louisiana Tech - go Middies. go.
Toledo at Western Michigan - Huge national title implications.
Maine at Syracuse - The Orange are so far down that I had to think about this. There's been a few wins by I-AA schools already this year and I think Maine is a I-AA school.
No. 3 Boise State at Wyoming - It's weird but I sort of want Boise to lose now. As much as I like the idea of a "small" team like theirs in the title game, I was really horrified by how boring BSU looked in the opener. If they keep playing like that I'll be glad to be rid of them.
No. 6 Texas at Texas Tech - If it weren't for the Craig James' son fiasco I would definitely pick the Red Raiders. Because without that nonsense Mike Leach would still be the coach. Texas hasn't been very good so far but I get the distinct impression that they are the best team in the Big XII other than Oklahoma.
No. 14 Utah at New Mexico - Wow. I never knew that Utah was ranked so high before now.
Southern Utah at San Jose State - ?
Notre Dame at Michigan State - I haven't seen the Michigan States play but I have seen some of Notre Dame's first couple of games. Michigan State couldn't be that bad, could they?
Fresno State at Utah State - I should watch this if it's on but I will probably make up a crossword puzzle or take a nap instead.
Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas State - Go Monroe!
New Mexico State at UTEP - UTEP should play Kentucky at least once every year in every sport. That doesn't very much apply to this game, now, does it? So it is.
No. 9 Iowa at No. 24 Arizona - Nick Foles > Ricky Stanzi
No. 23 Houston at UCLA - Houston might be without Case Keenum. UCLA is terrible. I'm gonna take the Bruins as winners here, close my eyes and not look again until it's over.
UNLV at Idaho
Wake Forest at No. 19 Stanford - Stanford looked great against UCLA last week. I hope Owusu gets back soon.

And we're done.  NFL tomorrow, Heisman Friday, alcoholic stupor all weekend.

Thursday, September 09, 2010

NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS

Better late than never with these things.  I picked tonight's game right, anyway, so I'm already heading for the right trajectory.  I messed up the math somewhere and ended up with a statistically impossible 265 total wins league-wide so I did what anybody would do: I took one win away from the Patriots.  My method was simple.  I predicted an imaginary, baseless outcome for each and every regular season game and then added up the records (minus that one Patriots win).  My player predictions will start this off.  I didn't pretend to have any imaginary totals to add up so I'm not giving out any fake yardage totals.  I'm dumb but I ain't no idiot.

MVP:  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay - I don't even have the Packers winning the NFC, which was actually a surprise to me.  But Aaron Rodgers is a hyp magnet who will throw for a ton of yards and he's never won anything before.  He's a perfect sponge for market saturation.

Rushing Champion:  Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee - He's cocky and he's really fast.  The most amazing thing he did last year isn't the part of his statistical domination getting stuffed down eveyone's throats.  Yeah, 2500 yds rushing sounds ridiculous but so should 2500 yds from scrimmage.  He actually did the latter last year and he didn't have a ton of touches.  He'll be the best again this year.

Receiving Champion:  Marques Colston, WR, Saints - He's got one not super-impressive game under his belt as I write this.  But I think he'll have the best season of any WR in the league, beating out Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson, Michael Crabtree and some other guys I'm not thinking of right now.

DPOY:  Patrick Willis, LB, 49ers - Just wait til you see the batshit crazy stuff I've got going on in the standings predictions.  Pat Willis will take the spot that Revis held last year: most talked about player in the league that the casual fan can't really follow or understand but they just get accepted as great because said fans want to look like they know what they're talking about. 49ers might havethe best D in the league this year.

ROY:  Ndamakuong Suh, DL, Lions - I'm sure I f'd up his name but look, motherfucker, I've got the Lions at 8-8.  Matt Stafford isn't that good yet.  Suh will make the Lions way better.  My other considerations were Sam Bradford (he'll be good but he's going to turn the ball over a lot this year), Ryan Matthews (San Diego throws too much for him to tear it up the way he should this year), DeMariyous Thomas (hurt too much), and Kyle Wilson (he'll get a bunch of picks as a nickel back but he won't start many games).

Surprise Star:  Deon Butler, WR, Seahawks - I expect a 1,000 yd season out of this guy.  He'll be this year's Miles Austin.

And here goes nothing:

AFC
East
New England 11-5 - boring, old, not really that boring because they throw the ball 65 times/game.
Miami 10-6 - boring, not that old.
NY Jets 6-10 - disappointment to end all disappointments after the NY media hype of the last 90 days.
Buffalo 5-11 - truly awful. CJ Spiller is not a 300 carry kind of guy, I don't think.  He's like an Eric Metcalf clone.

North
Baltimore 13-3 - top seed in the AFC by record but not exactly a rock solid Super Bowl pick
Cincinnatti 8-8 - I really expected more out of my imaginary Bengals
Pittsburgh 7-9 - I have them as the last team to win a game in the league.  Ol' Rapey Greycock might turn it on when he gets back but this team is fucked.
Cleveland 7-9 - I was really surprised at how poorly I had them finishing.  Don't worry Cleveland fans, Mike Holmgren will not chain your franchise to the neck of future horrible pro QB Jake Locker.

South
Indianapolis 12-4 - and this would be a down year for them. Terrible coaches can only coast on the prior regime's program for so long, though, so expect the facade to start cracking this year.
Tennessee 11-5 - yeah, that's right.  Chris Johnson will get some MVP votes of his own this year.
Houston 8-8 - this team might never get it all the way right.  Matt Schaub is better than Mike Vick, at least.
Jacksonville 4-12 - still might not get Jack del Rio fired somehow

West
Oakland 8-8 - worst division winner of the year
Denver 8-8 - will get swept by Oakland, of all things, to narrowly snatch their hard-won label as chokers out of the seeming inevitability of a playoff run.
Kansas City 7-9 - they should run a lot more than they will.
San Diego 4-12 - see? Ryan Mathews can't win shit when his team is the worst team in the worst division in football!

NFC
East
NY Giants 10-6 - best football team in the Meadowlands II.
Dallas 8-8 - somewhat surprising to see them suck this bad. God will do anything to keep a home team from playing in the Super Bowl, though, as has been proven by top scientists the world over.
Washington 7-9 - it seems like they are in a similar position every year.
Philadelphia 6-10 - record will make the season seem worse than the reality. They'll be stronger in 2011.

North
Green Bay 12-4 - dominant seeming team won't even get homefield in their conference.
Minnesota 10-6 - Favre will not go out on top but he won't be an outright embarrassment, either.
Detroit 8-8 - this is like winning the Super Bowl for the Lions.
Chicago 3-13 - and with the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft...

South
New Orleans 12-4 - I'm just guessing on the tiebreaker going their way.
Atlanta 12-4 - I've got a really good feeling about this team.
Tampa Bay 5-11 - look! They aren't in last place!
Carolina 3-13 - this is my least likely prediction in this whole stupid game I'm playing.  This team might be terrible but, come on, 3 wins? I guessed it all so I'm going with it. This feels shaky.

West
San Francisco 13-3 - I really had no intention or expectation of San Francisco being this good.  I believe it, though. They've got talent, discipline and a tissue soft schedule. This is a fluke thing, though, so don't count on it extending into the playoffs.
Seattle 7-9 - better than the record indicates? No, about exactly that good.
Arizona 5-11 - expect the unexpected disaster on every play from Arizona this year.
St. Louis 4-12 - this will count as improvement. They'll be fine in 2012 if the NFL still exists then.

PLAYOFFS
Round 1
Brett Favre's career will end, fittingly, at Lambeau Field when the Packers destroy the Vikings.
Atlanta will beat the Giants at the Meadowlands.
In a not exciting for anybody rubber match, the Patriots will beat the Dolphins in Foxboro thanks to some predictably lousy officiating.
Tennessee will find a way to lose to Oakland just to extend the joke of Oakland being in the playoffs in the first place.

Round 2
Green Bay vs. New Orleans will be one of the best playoff games of all time. I have a tough time picking either team as the winner. I'll say Green Bay just because the Saints won it all last year.
San Francisco will surprisingly wallop the Falcons in a matchup of former rivals.
Indianapolis and New England will bore the country to sleep before Indy wins by default.
Baltimore will beat Oakland in one of the worst playoff games of all time. It's just the way it is.

Championship Round
San Francisco will crumble in a haze of Alex Smith turnovers at home to catapult Green Bay into the Super Bowl to meet...
Baltimore!  Take that Irsay!  The Colts will meet their demise in Baltimore.  It will be very poetic.

SUPER BOWL
Baltimore vs. Green Bay - Joe Flacco will play the game of his life only to be superceded in MVP voting by LeRon McLain (sp? - remember this is a strict no research blog) who will somehow break out for a bunch of long runs.  Green Bay will be great in the deep passing game but will get all kinds of ruined on short routes and in the running game.  Ray Murda will announce his retirement at the end of the game but will play two more seasons anyway.

So there you have it, the big gay NFL Predictions Roundup brought to you by the comedy corporation, Laugh-O!  I leave to you the most enduring and beautiful testament to Western culture history us thus far bequeathed us:

NFL PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 1 (Gambling/Fantasy Cheat Sheet)

This is probably not something you want to use as a gambling or fantasy cheat sheet.  I go through all the games and I pick winners with stupid little comments about what players I expect to have big games.  I don't have Sunday Ticket anymore.  The guesswork involved in this season will be monumentally unfocused.  I will not pretend that I know what I'm talking about.  Also, it may seem a little disjointed but I'm going to put up my season predictions tomorrow, after the first game has been played.  Scheduling conflicts have kept me from having that shit taken care of before now.  Onward and downward.  The highlighted team wins the game.

THU, SEP 9
Minnesota at New Orleans - You know who's a good player?  Marques Colston.  Play him.  Play Drew Brees.  Play Purple Jesus of Fumbles.  This should be a fun game to watch.  I fully expect things to start unraveling for the Vikings sometime in the second half of this game.  Fuck up early and often this year.

SUN, SEP 12
Carolina at NY Giants - The Panthers are a mess.  This is the first real game in this new stadium.  The Giants will find a way to destroy Carolina.  Definitely play Bradshaw and Jacobs, probably play Eli and Steve Smith.  One of Carolina's runners will be good.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh - Dennis Dixon is starting for the Steelers.  They are doomed.  Matt Ryan will probably have shitty numbers here but Michael Tuner might get some burn going.  Start Tony Gonzalez.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay - Cleveland will run for 400 yds as a team to beat out the Bucs 300 yds on the ground.  Start all the RBs.
Denver at Jacksonville - If I were to bet on such things I would have major $$$ on a bet that Tebow will get real playing time in his hometown,  Other than that I'd start whoever it is that plays running back in Denver these days.
Indianapolis at Houston - Start every offensive player you've got for this one.
Miami at Buffalo - Start whatever unfortunate sot you've got for the Dolphins.
Detroit at Chicago - Horrible for every one witnesing it.
Oakland at Tennessee - 2 wrongs don't make it right, you?
Cincinnati at New England - New look Bengals!
Arizona at St. Louis - I've got an important meeting with my pillow coming out.  Arizona will be terrible all year.
San Francisco at Seattle - Deon Butler will be the surprise WR for this whole year unless Golden Tate takes it over,
Green Bay at Philadelphia - Philly enters  a brand new world with him PPV and no more McNabb.
Dallas at Washington - Who cares

MON, SEP 13
Baltimore at NY Jets - Baltimore will look good winning this one.
San Diego at Kansas City - Double ugh.

That's all for tonight.

Wednesday, September 08, 2010

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2 PREVIEW: September 11th Edition

No, it's not September 11th as I write this.  It feels a little odd to have sports happening on September 11th.  Not sure what else to do, though.  I'm pretty sure we get football on December 7th, too.  Oh, well.  This is the week that determines my level of interest in the remainder of the season.  So soon?  Yeah, because I might end up really enjoying another season without Miami in the title chase but it certainly won't feel as "important" to me.  Navy already screwed things up by turning the ball over 47 times against Maryland.  My Ricky Dobbbs 4 Heisman campaign is tots dunzors.

I was hoping for some extra clarity in the Heisman race but I didn't get any.  I'll post a separate Heisman column on Friday.  I don't feel up to it and I want to look busier.  So this marathon gets cut down a little bit.  I'm just going off the top, as usual, here.  I had a very impressive looking record last week, going 67-12, but if you look at the numbers a little closer you'll notice that there are only 120 teams (or close to there) in Division I-A and 79 games played last week.  So 38 teams played againt I-AA competition.  As far as I know only Ole Miss lost.  That means I was only 30-11 in real terms.  Still a decent record but most week 1 games are envisioned as mismatches.  I went mostly chalk (I think) last week.  My no research idiocy is calling out for more upset picks.  Let's get to it, shall I?

Thursday, September 9

Central Michigan at Temple - Bernarrrdd??  Temple almost fucked up horribly last week.  Bernard Pierce only looked decent in the 4th quarter.  He'll pick it up, though.  I'm not worried.
No. 21 Auburn at Mississippi State - Great win for Miss State last week.  Back to reality...
Friday, September 10

No. 23 West Virginia at Marshall - Something seems odd about this game.  Oh, yeah, West Virginia is ranked.  They probably don't deserve it and Noel Devine is off the radar in my Heisman poll of me but Marshall is pretty goddamn terrible.
UTEP at Houston - Case Keenum needs bigger numbers.  Last game was annoying.

Saturday, September 11
San Jose State at No. 11 Wisconsin - John Clay for Heisman.  I didn't even look at the stats from last week.  I've seen him before and I know he's good.
No. 15 Georgia Tech at Kansas - Kansas got shut out by some team.  Maybe a AA school.  I'm not sure.  The Wramblin Wreck is due for a big fall in the ACC but Kansas isn't in the ACC and they aren't any good.
No. 22 Georgia at No. 24 South Carolina - Early season SEC game.  South Carolina surpirsed me by not being completely ineffectual last week.  Spurrier has to make this stupid team a little better eventually.  Georgia...  I don't know.  I have no reasons.
Texas Southern at Connecticut - UConn sucks
Illinois State at Northwestern - Northwestern sucks
South Dakota at Minnesota - Minnesota really sucks
Memphis at East Carolina - Memphis might be the worst team in Div I-A.  I have no reason to believe that but they might be.
Duke at Wake Forest - I like everybody better than Duke.
Hawaii at Army - Some ESPN guy talked about how hard this road trip will be but, come on, to Army?
Gardner-Webb at Akron
Indiana State at Cincinnati
Michigan State vs. Florida Atlantic* - This game is on a neutral field and Florida Atlantic has no chance.  I gotta take those odds.
Western Illinois at Purdue - Robert Marve is QB for Purdue.
South Florida at No. 8 Florida - Based on last week, Florida might lose to anybody.  They will save all their losses for better teams, though.
Idaho at No. 6 Nebraska - If it weren't for Boise State getting #1 votes Nebraska would be the clear favorite to be the most overrated team in America.
New Hampshire at Pittsburgh
James Madison at No. 13 Virginia Tech
Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH)
Iowa State at No. 9 Iowa
No. 17 Florida State at No. 10 Oklahoma - No, don't believe it.  I still won't change the pick.
Colorado at California - Hahaha! I'm kidding.
Michigan at Notre Dame - this game is for some stupid, inflated, soon to burst ranking.
Eastern Kentucky at Louisville
Kent State at Boston College
Presbyterian at Clemson Is Presbyterian a D I-A school now?
Arkansas State at Louisiana-Lafayette
Georgia Southern at Navy - The biggest letdown for me in week 1 tries to salvage their image.
No. 12 Miami (FL) at No. 2 Ohio State - I've been waiting all summer for this game.  Miami has to win.
UNLV at No. 20 Utah
Brigham Young at Air Force
Morgan State at Maryland
No. 18 Penn State at No. 1 Alabama - I kind of hope Penn State wins.  But only kind of.  I don't think they have a chance, though.
Tennessee Tech at No. 4 TCU - TCU is gonna beat the shit out of this school's football team.
Wyoming at No. 5 Texas - Not as easy as it seems but probably just as easy as Rice.  Texas should have won that game by a lot more than they did.
No. 7 Oregon at Tennessee - Tennessee has a lot of things to correct and they aren't a top 25 team.  Oregon will fuck up here like they have to do early in the season just because they always do shit like that.
No. 14 Arkansas vs. Louisiana-Monroe* - Woohoo.  Go pigfuckers.
No. 19 LSU at Vanderbilt - LSU should have lost to UNC last week.
McNeese State at Missouri
Toledo at Ohio
Troy at Oklahoma State - OK State takes a tough opponent here but they've got some guy named Kendall that had the best game of anyone in week 1.
Bowling Green at Tulsa
Buffalo at Baylor
Louisiana Tech at Texas A&M
Rice at North Texas
Syracuse at Washington - There was a good long while there where this would have been a matchup of top 10 teams.  Syracuse might not even be top 10 in their own conference anymore.  Which sucks because there aren't 10 teams in their conference.
Montana State at Washington State
Liberty at Ball State
Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee
North Dakota at Northern Illinois
Prairie View A&M at Southern Miss
Nicholls State at Western Michigan
Missouri State at Kansas State
Western Kentucky at Kentucky
Southern Illinois at Illinois - There are still a lot of bullshit matchups this week
North Carolina State at UCF
San Diego State at New Mexico State
Texas Tech at New Mexico
Idaho State at Utah State
Rutgers at FIU - I wonder if Rutgers is an underdog here.
UAB at Southern Methodist
Mississippi at Tulane - There is no way Ole Miss loses this game but I refuse to pick them anyway.
Northern Arizona at Arizona State
Citadel at Arizona
Virginia at No. 16 USC - You know, for all the hype around this week, this is one of the better matchups.  Ugh.
No. 25 Stanford at UCLA - I might actually watch this.  Owusu needs to light it up somehow
Colorado State at Nevada - Great capper to the week.

Wednesday, September 01, 2010

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 1 PICKS: Whatever Will Be Will Be

Football season is upon us. I’m more excited by this season than I can remember feeling about football since I was a 16 year old Cowboys fan. I’m giddy about Miami’s prospects so I assume they’ll go out and lose to FAMU tomorrow night. Which would be, admittedly, pretty funny. Other things I’m hopeful about: Bernard Pierce becoming a household name. Navy continuing their domination of the Independents conference. Ricky Dobbs getting on some Heisman ballots. Houston attempting to one-up their own history and going balls-to-the-wall pass crazy trying to get Case Keenum up to 6,000yds passing on the year. Here’s my first attempt at weekly predictions. I don’t know how long I’ll keep up with my tabulations, I should do this shit in Excel if I’m really worrying about it. I’m not worrying about it. If you read this last year let me remind you of the rules; if you’ve never read it before let me fill you in: Research is against the rules. This all has to come off the top of the head. I like to throw out some ridiculous predictions. Navy always gets picked to win. Miami gets picked to win but I’ll let you know if I believe it or not. That’s the predictions. The highlighted team is the winner. Also notable is the fact that I will never remember FBS and FCS so I just use I-A and I-AA when it comes up.


The Heisman list will get whittled down and is based on my observations of actual games. My list is predicated on having seen at least one game from a player and is in no way representative of how I think the voting will go. Leave that shit to the HP. I love that site and wouldn’t try to duplicate what he does. I said in the last post that I’d have a Heisman list to go with predictions but that’s stupid. Just predictions for the first week. I’ll try to do this on Tuesday nights from now on. Let’s see if I can get more than 10 page views a week for this season. Onward and upward!

THURSDAY
Presbyterian at Wake Forest – best game of the year. Book it.
Southeast Missouri State at Ball State – also the best game of the year.
Rhode Island at Buffalo – No more Turner Gill in Buffalo. URI is not I-A as far as I know.
Hampton at Central Michigan – Another classic matchup. Thursday will be full of thrillers.
Murray State at Kent State – 10 students are killed on campus every week at Kent State. Tradition rules.
Marshall at No. 2 Ohio State – As much as I would love to pick Marshall that’s just ridiculous. That program fell off a cliff. I don’t think Terrelle Pryor will even be the best Heisman candidate on the Buckeyes, for what it’s worth.
Florida A&M at No. 13 Miami (FL) – I don’t know what to expect. Jacory won’t throw many passes. The RBs barely even have an established pecking order. The defense looks rugged but we’ll see. I want the Canes to come out and play disciplined for 4 quarters. If they don’t? Maybe they haven’t made any sort of leap forward. They should win this one by about 50. Randy Shannon has shown little to no propensity for running up the score thus far in his coaching career.
Towson at Indiana – Indiana’s biggest win of the year. Might be the only one.
Norfolk State at Rutgers
Minnesota at Middle Tennessee – Good win on the road for the Gophers. Best game of the year, also.
Southern Miss at South Carolina – One of the few games on this whole docket that I have trouble making up my mind about. South Carolina is the snooziest team to watch in the SEC. Southern Miss is randomly good every few years. What happens here? I’ll take a road team just to take a road team. Maybe Spurrier can retire after this game.
Florida Atlantic at UAB – Sure, why not? This game will have huge National Title implications
Northern Illinois at Iowa State – Best part about this one is that I really don’t have any knowledge of either program. NIU put out Michael Turner, right?
Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane – I give Tulane entirely too much credit on here, too, if you’re wondering.
No. 15 Pittsburgh at Utah – Is Utah good? I don’t remember. Strong candidate for upset of the week but I’m not going to blow my load on this one.
North Dakota at Idaho – I like the Vandals.
Eastern Washington at Nevada – This might be a conference game. This might be a joke that ESPN’s web programmers put on the schedule. Whatever it is, it’s a huge game.
No. 14 USC at Hawaii – There. That’s more like it.
FRIDAY
Villanova at Temple – Bernarrrrrrrdddddddddddddd!
Arizona at Toledo – I vaguely remember UA having a QB last year. I think he’s back.
SATURDAY
Miami (OH) at No. 4 Florida – Flori-duh. Great out of conference schedule they lined up this year. This is Urban Meyer’s big comeback game.
Youngstown State at No. 19 Penn State – Great game.
Samford at No. 20 Florida State – Florida State deserves to lose this game to Bobby Bowden’s alma mater.
Western Michigan at Michigan State
Eastern Illinois at No. 9 Iowa – Hmmm… Iowa does suck pretty bad, though.
Louisiana-Lafayette at No. 23 Georgia – Not an endorsement of Richt.
Illinois vs. Missouri* - Nobody wins. Especially Zook. But nobody wins.
South Carolina State at No. 16 Georgia Tech – Here’s the part where I start rushing through this shit.
Weber State at Boston College
Colorado vs. Colorado State*
Northwestern State at Air Force
No. 5 Texas vs. Rice* - Texas will score 85+ points.
New Mexico at No. 11 Oregon – Oregon learned their lesson last year when they opened with Boise. No more good teams the first week.
Coastal Carolina at No. 25 West Virginia – Noel Devine needs to go crazy on the yardage where he can.
Purdue at Notre Dame – I actually think Dayne Crist is a good player. He will get hurt in this game, though, because that’s what he does.
Kentucky at Louisville – Rivalry game!
Connecticut at Michigan – I highlighted Michigan by mistake. They have to earn a lot of trust before they start seeing regular highlights.
Jacksonville State at Mississippi – Hahahahaha to Ole Miss and Jeremiah Masoli. Even though I liked watching him play and understand that he’s been railroaded as many times as he’s fucked up.
North Texas at Clemson – Clemson sucks but North Texas is the worst.
UCLA at Kansas State – Big win for UCLA. They will never be ranked higher than they will be after this week.
UC Davis at California
Western Carolina at North Carolina State
Richmond at Virginia – Weird scheduling. UVA is coached by the guy that made Richmond a I-AA powerhouse. UVA hasn’t been good in a while and the ACC did butcher the early-going last year so this highlight isn’t very solid feeling.
Syracuse at Akron – Whatever.
South Dakota at UCF
Tennessee-Martin at Tennessee – Go Vols. Go. Fight. Bet UT wins this by their highest margin of the year. I’m giving ‘em 7.
Sacramento State at Stanford – I like Stanford even without Gerhart. There, I said it.
San Jose State at No. 1 Alabama – Pensacola is in the building, that’s all I got to say.
Utah State at No. 7 Oklahoma
Western Kentucky at No. 8 Nebraska
Tennessee Tech at No. 17 Arkansas
Arkansas State at No. 22 Auburn
Elon at Duke
Wofford at Ohio
Washington State at Oklahoma State – Nice little warm-up game for OK State.
Sam Houston State at Baylor
Stephen F. Austin at Texas A&M – A&M loves these games. They will try for 100.
Washington at Brigham Young – And there goes Jake Locker’s Heisman…
Memphis at Mississippi State – Nobody will ever know how this game ended. Or started. Or was in the middle.
Army at Eastern Michigan
North Dakota State at Kansas – Big game atmosphere for this one.
Bowling Green at Troy – I struggled with this but why bother?
Louisiana Tech vs. Grambling State* - See above.
Stony Brook at South Florida – USF in the new era. Hope they collapse.
Northwestern at Vanderbilt
No. 24 Oregon State vs. No. 6 TCU* - BS busters will suck balls this week. I’ve finally come to terms with this: Andy Dalton blows. Fuck TCU.
No. 21 LSU vs. No. 18 North Carolina* - UNC is a mess and I hope Butch Davis falls on his face. Of course, his record at Carolina is actually terrible so I’m pretty late to the party with that sentiment.
Nicholls State at San Diego State
Texas State at Houston – I don’t know what Texas Tech is going to be like from now on. I wish Leach was there and the final score could be 68-54 or some shit. For all I know, TxTech is even better now. I want Keenum to do well, though, so I’m picking Houston. Oh, wait. Texas State? That’s a school? Keenum should be just fine.
Southern Utah at Wyoming
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at UTEP
Portland State at Arizona State
Cincinnati at Fresno State - It's a new era in Cincinnati.
No. 12 Wisconsin at UNLV – John Clay is the most likely 2,000yd rusher in the country.

SUNDAY
Tulsa at East Carolina – I bet this game goes on as planned.
Southern Methodist at Texas Tech – So, I think these bases have been covered. Except to say that June Jones will extract his revenge. Does he have revenge to extract? I think he always does.

MONDAY
Navy vs. Maryland* - Go Middies!
No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 10 Virginia Tech* - I enjoy Boise State football. I really do. I kind of want them to win. I like the idea of them being a title contender. Here we finally are, though, so close to the season. It won’t happen. It just won’t. Virginia Tech will play angry and they won’t throw many passes. This doesn’t even have the feeling of a good game to me. I expect the Hokies to truck ‘em.

There you have it, see you next week.

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

The Big College Football Conference-by-Conference Season and Heisman Predictions

Look, I'm not gonna tell you I have any intention of giving you good advice.  I think this is a half-informed batch of guesses.  But I do watch lots of football and I read about sports constantly.  Who are you to read this?  I don't think you exist so I'll be honest: this year won't even be as informed or desparate as last year.  Last year nobody read this blog but I was unemployed and had every channel DirecTV offers at my disposal.  This year I'm back at my old job and super-depressed.  But I don't even have my DirecTV shit set up yet.  Right now we're on what's called the "Family Package."  What does that mean?  No channels with any potential entertainment value.  Families don't go for shit like that.  This will be as quick as possible.  Not a lot of write-up, just a bunch of lists.  Records listed are for regular season only, conference record in parentheses.  Let's get this under way, shall we?

ACC
Miami will finally rule the ACC.  I believe it even more than I'm hoping for it.  I expect it.  The Canes are back to being loaded at every position.  They'll be screwed this year if Jacory Harris gets hurt but they could still win the conference.  That's at least as much an indictment of Christian Ponder and Butch Davis and Georgia Tech in general as it is a vote of confidence in the overall depth at The U.  But this Hurricanes team is at the highest talent level they've had in at least 7 years.  They remind me of the 2000 squad more than anything else.

ATLANTIC
Florida State, 9-3 (7-1)
Boston College, 8-4 (5-3)
Wake Forest, 7-5 (4-4)
Clemson, 7-5 (4-4)
Maryland, 6-6 (3-5)
N.C. State, 4-8 (1-7)

COASTAL
Miami, 11-1 (8-0)
Virginia Tech, 10-2 (6-2)
North Carolina, 8-4 (5-3)
Georgia Tech, 7-5 (4-4)
Duke, 4-8 (1-7)
Virginia, 3-9 (0-8)

Title Game: Miami over FSU

BIG XII
Nebraska's last season in the Big XII.  Last season of 12 teams.  What do they call it next year?  No more title game since they won't have the minimum necessary for that.  But that's next year!  Can Nebraska come out on top for a going away present? No!  Oklahoma will take it.  Yep, that's right.  Not Texas.  Not Texas A&M.  Oklahoma.  Last year was a fluke and this year will be business as usual.

NORTH
Nebraska, 10-2 (6-2)
Kansas State, 7-5 (4-4)
Missouri, 6-6 (3-5)
Iowa State, 5-7 (3-5)
Kansas, 4-8 (1-7)
Colorado, 3-9 (1-7)

SOUTH
Oklahoma, 11-1 (8-0)
Texas, 10-2 (7-1)
Oklahoma State, 9-3 (6-2)
Texas A&M, 7-5 (5-3)
Texas Tech, 6-6 (4-4)
Baylor, 1-11 (0-8)

Title Game: Oklahoma over Nebraska

BIG EAST
This conference is not as bad as people think but it could end up in some disarray this year.  Pitt is the obvious choice to win it with West Virginia the only likely contender.  But there's a chance that UConn, USF or one of the other losers steps up and wins this thing.  There's always a chance, though, and it isn't going to be taken.  Cincinnati will fall back to earth.  Good riddance.

Pitt, 10-2 (6-1)
WestVirginia 9-3 (5-2)
UConn,7-5 (4-3)
USF, 7-5 (3-4)
Cincinnati, 6-6 (3-4)
Rutgers, 5-7 (3-4)
Syracuse, 5-7 (2-5)
Louisville, 4-8 (2-5)

BIG 10
The other one that needs to change its name.  I hate the Big 10.  I hate every team in it, from an entertainment value standpoint.  I want to choose Wisconsin to win it but that would be stupid.  Ohio State has to be the best team here, don't they?

Ohio State, 11-1 (8-0)
Wisconsin, 10-2 (7-1)
Penn State, 8-4 (5-3)
Purdue, 7-5 (5-3)
Iowa, 7-5 (5-3)
Michigan, 6-6 (5-3)
Michigan State, 6-6 (4-4)
Minnesota, 4-8 (2-6)
Northwestern, 4-8 (2-6)
Illinois, 3-9 (1-7)
Indiana, 1-11 (0-8)

CONFERENCE USA
Look, some of these are gonna be a crap shoot, OK?  I don't really know the schedules at all and some of these conferences just barely exist.  Can I put Case Keenum on the Heisman short list when his team is terrible and in a terrible conference?  You're goddamed, right I can.

EAST
East Carolina, 9-3 (6-2)
UCF, 7-5 (5-3)
Southern Miss, 7-5 (4-4)
Marshall, 6-6 (4-4)
Memphis, 5-7 (3-5)
UAB, 3-9 (2-6)

WEST
Houston, 11-1 (8-0)
SMU, 8-4 (5-3)
Tulane, 5-7 (4-4)
Tulsa, 5-7 (3-5)
Rice, 4-8 (3-5)
UTEP, 2-10 (1-7)

Title Game: Houston over ECU.  Big money, baby.

INDEPENDENT
Here's my ridiculous coup.  Navy in the Top10 at season's end!  Go Middies!  Notre Dame will be better this year but still terrible.  Ricky Dobbs will win the Heisman that Tommy Frazier should've won.

Navy, 11-1
Notre Dame, 8-4
Army, 4-8

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
The original mid-major in basketball has never put up a legit contender in football.  This year is not going to make me feel bad about saying: I have no clue who's supposed to be good here and it doesn't matter.  10th-rate conference with no decent bowl affiliations.  Nobody cares.

EAST
Temple, 7-5 (6-2)
Buffalo, 7-5 (5-3)
Ohio, 5-7 (4-4)
Akron, 4-8 (4-4)
Bowling Green, 5-7 (4-4)
Miami OH, 4-8 (3-5)
Kent State, 3-9 (3-5)

WEST
Northern Illinois, 8-4 (6-2)
Ball State, 7-5 (5-3)
EMU, 7-5 (4-4)
CMU, 6-6 (4-4)
Toledo, 4-8 (3-5)
WMU, 3-9 (2-6)

Title Game?: Temple, as long as we're just making shit up.

MOUNTAIN WEST
We are just making shit up.  I think TCU is a full fledged program at this point so I'll take em to win this conference.  I don't have much to base that on, though.  I know they fucked up royally in the bowl game against Boise last year.  Andy Dalton looked fairly unimpressive upon closer inspection.  Maybe he's as good as his numbers this year?

TCU, 11-1 (8-0)
BYU, 8-4 (6-2)
Utah, 8-4 (5-3)
Air Force, 7-5 (5-3)
SDSU, 6-6 (4-4)
Wyoming, 5-7 (4-4)
UNLV, 4-8 (2-6)
CSU, 3-9 (1-7)
New Mexico, 2-10 (1-7)

PAC-10
I want to believe UCLA is the best team here.  Or Stanford.  But it's really Oregon.  And USC isn't even dead yet.  It might be a rough year in the Pac 10.

Oregon, 8-4 (6-3)
Stanford, 7-5 (6-3)
Oregon State, 7-5 (6-3)
USC, 7-5 (5-4)
UCLA, 7-5 (5-4)
California, 6-6 (5-4)
Arizona, 6-6 (5-4)
Washington, 6-6 (4-5)
Arizona State, 5-7 (3-6)
Washington State, 1-11 (0-9)

SEC
Tebow's gone.  Urban Meyer should've left.  Alabama is pretty awesome.  LSU is the same every year even when they win the National Championship.  Ole Miss and Miss State are horrid.  Georgia never wins any big games.  I'm sure the final standings will look nothing like this.

EAST
Florida, 9-3 (6-2)
Tennessee, 8-4 (5-3)
South Carolina, 7-5 (5-3)
Georgia, 8-4 (5-3) - I don't think this is how the SEC standings work but I've got Georgia losing the USC, so they're behind them in my book.
Kentucky, 7-5 (4-4)
Vanderbilt, 3-9 (1-7)

WEST
Alabama, 11-1 (7-1)
LSU, 9-3 (6-2)
Auburn, 8-4 (5-3)
Arkansas, 5-7 (2-6)
Ole Miss, 4-8 (2-6)
Miss State, 3-9 (0-8)

Title Game: Alabama over Florida.  Like last year but worse.  Rompy rompy rompy.

SUN BELT
I made a promise to myself that I would do this whole article.

Arkansas State, 7-5 (6-2)
Troy, 7-5 (6-2)
Florida Atlantic, 7-5 (5-3)
Florida Int'l, 7-5 (4-4)
Louisiana-Monroe, 5-7 (4-4)
Western Kentucky, 4-8 (3-5)
North Texas, 3-9 (3-5)
Middle Tennessee, 3-9 (2-6)
Louisiana - Lafayette, 1-11 (1-7)

So there you have it.  Miami beats up an old ghost in the title game by beating Alabama and finally wins the Fiest Bowl.

Heisman list:
Ricky Dobbs, QB, Navy - best network-ready story for the Heisman.  If Navy is as good as I hope they are, he'll be in the public eye.  He's a great option QB and a future politician.  Run, Ricky, Run!

Jacory Harris, QB, Miami - No chance in hell he wins the award.  But he'll be the big name for the best team in the country.  That gets you invited to New York, if nothing else.

John Clay, RB, Wisconsin - He's really good.

Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma - He will get much undue credit for bringing Oklahoma back from the brink.  It's not his fault.  He will put up a ton of stats.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston - I hope he wins it.  He is my fave player in college football because he reminds me of the old-timey Run-n-Shoot Houston Cougs.  New age Andre Ware.  6,000 yd season is possible and would get him real close.

Others to consider:

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State
Brandon Saine, RB, Ohio State
Chris Owusu, WR, Stanford
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State
Dion Lewis, RB, Pitt
Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia
Bernard Pierce, RB, Temple
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State
Storm Johnson, RB, Miami
Jared Crick, DL, Nebraska

There will be more after the first week.  Complete weekly predictions coming tomorrow or Wednesday.