Thursday, October 08, 2009

No Fun Lost-time Preview for Week 5

I'm not researching this anymore than I do with the college stuff I write. If something catches my eye, I'll spill it here. Otherwise just assume that all my knowledge comes from Sundays spent with NFL Sunday Ticket. It ain't hi-def but it is every game. So there's that. And I don't care as much about the NFL, so maybe this will be less partial than my college stuff.

Side note: I haven't really thought much about Crabtree since he signed. Apparently he isn't going to play this week. I think he'll be OK, though. He'll get 11 games and I'm going to guess he gets about 600 yds and 3 TD. He won't be great right away but he'll be really good. And he'll look better because the 49ers have some pretty good players around him that will keep him from being the focus too early. Shawn Hill is not a good QB, but he's not Jamarcus Russell.

More side notes: Go anyone playing the Red Sox and Yankees!

Here's ur inalysis for WEEK 5 (Purple wins!):
Cleveland at Buffalo - Maybe Marshawn Lynch can do something this week. Dick Jauron gets my vote for worst coach in the league, just barely beating out Eric Mangini. But Cleveland has no discernible talent on offense. Really, Brady Quinn is probably their best player right now and he doesn't even start. This game will probably end up with some crazy score like 48-42 but if the NFL had anything approaching consistent outcomes I would say it's 10-4 Bills. Trent Edwards will run out of the back of the end zone on accident and the punter will take a safety on purpose. That is all the scoring for the Browns. If you play anyone from this game I would advise Bills D, Marshawn Lynch and maybe Fred Jackson.

Dallas at Kansas City - I bet the Chiefs score their season high in points this week. Cowboys will win, 34-30. Romo should be a good play, Derrick Bowe should be good, Marion Barber should be awesome and the kickers should be OK. Witten will get some yards and so will Miles Austin. Bet on it. But don't attribute that to me, because I don't owe you anything when I'm wrong. Don't talk to me either. I'm writing this blog now just to organize my thoughts around something other than ending up homeless.

Minnesota at St. Louis - Lots of hype on Minnesota. They'll be OK, but I don't think Peterson, Harvin, Favre, or Berrian has a great game. I bet Chester Taylor gets his vulture scores starting this week and the Vikings D will get a ton of points this week. The Rams? Stephen Jackson will get nothing. Donnie Avery might get some cheap points late and get some folks back on his bandwagon. Cheap points still count in your fantasy league, right? Vikings 38, Rams 10.

Oakland at NY Giants - This is the kind of game that worries me in the NFL. Most games you don't look too bad if you get them wrong because there are only a handful of obvious mismatches in the NFL. And they usually end up way closer than they should unless the Patriots are involved and healthy. They will probably fade this year, finally, but they haven't yet. The Giants look to me like the team most likely to take the Pats place as a well-run organization that most people really hate but their fans are obnoxious idiots whose world ends at the end of their nose so they don't understand that you are not happy for them in the least little bit. That leads me to this: Giants 42, Raiders 14. Both Raiders TDs will be flukes. Maybe a defensive TD and some crazzy play to Louis Murphy with 9 seconds left in the game. Don't ever play a Raiders player this year if you can avoid it. Except for Sebass. Giants should be OK to play Manningham, Eli, Jacobs and Steve Smith. But Steve Smith will get blanketed this week. Because Aasomugha (sp?) is the best CB in the league by far. It's not even close. He's the best guy since Deion and Darrell Green. It's too bad nobody in the USA can remember his name. But he won't help you in fantasy football, so ignore him. I don't know who the Giants backup TE is, but Kevin Boss looked like he got some serious ligament damage last week. I haven't read the injury reports this week but I can't imagine Boss being effective again until he gets some rest. Hakeem Nicks might pick up some points this week, too, but I'm scared to play him until I see him play some more.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia - Coming off the bye week, Philly should be shooting for 100 this week. I don't know how good they are as a team, but count on them to score. I'm thinking about playing LeSean McCoy even with Brian Westbrook back. Donovan McNabb is back this week and I'm expecting him to be awesome. I don't remember who the Eagles TE is but I bet he has the biggest game of the year for any TE so far this year. Eagles 56 - Bucs 20. Don't trust anyone on the Bucs. Cadillac Williams could be huge this week and so could KII, but if you're counting on Cadillac or any TE, you are probably already out of your playoff race in fantasy.

Pittsburgh at Detroit - I would love to say Detroit wins this game but it hardly seems like a safe pick. Rashard Mendenhall will get a lot of points this week. So will Hines Ward and Ben Rapeyburger. Is Heath Miller still in Pittsburgh? I think he'll be OK. Detroit might not have Stafford. Megatron is an automatic start and the TE on the Lions is actually OK. So the Lions will keep it closer than you expect. Which is to say the Steelers might not shut them out. Steerlers, 27 - 6.

Washington at Carolina - Here we go. How can you go wrong here? Nobody expects either team to win. Clinton Portis and/or Ladell Betts will be a good play. Chris Cooley will be a good play. Both defenses will get some turnovers, so they should be decent plays, too. DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith will have some good plays and might both score. But both of these teams are in danger of falling apart, so don't be surprised no matter what happens. Redskins 20 - Panthers 17? Seems realistic.

Cincinnati at Baltimore - Baltimore seems overrated and the Bengals seem underrated. So the Ravens will end up winning by 30. 44 - 14 could happen. Flacco will be good but will get sacked and throw an INT, if not more. Carson Palmer will be decent but this is the game where I predict Cedric Benson reverts to form. Do you really think you've figured out the Ravens RB rotation? Fine, go ahead and start one of those guys but I'm not going to back you up on it.

Atlanta at San Francisco - Atlanta is a pretty good team. I want the 49ers to be good but I think they're more of a mirage. I'd be fine with Matt Ryan playing and Tony Gonzales is safe. I don't know if Jennings or White are getting the ball enough to trust them. I didn't like Michael Turner coming into the year and I still don't. But he might score so you're stuck with him. I watched Glen Coffee last week and he looks like a big step down from Frank Gore to my eyes. Don't think much of any 49ers this week but their defense went berserk last week. Falcons 23 - 49ers 12.

Jacksonville at Seattle - Jaguars looked great against the Titans and their fans don't like them, so going on the road shouldn't make much of a difference. The Seahawks are OK. You should probably start playing Burleson if you haven't already and Jon Carlson is good at TE. Julius Jones is surprisingly decent. I would play Garrard if I had him, I'd definitely play Sims-Walker and I'd always play MJD. Tim Tebow's Hometown Jaguars 28, Jimi Hendrix's Hometown Seahawks 16.

Houston at Arizona - ESPN is featuring this game in their articles this week so it will either be unwatchable or it will look like a game of Tecmo Super Bowl. I'm closing my eyes and hoping for the latter. Play everybody in this one. Even Matt Leinart seems like a safe play. Seriously, this should be awesome. Cards 63 - Texans 52. That would be great, right? That's why I want to watch this one.

New England at Denver - I probably won't watch a single play of this on purpose. Brady's good, Orton's fine, don't trust any NE players other than Moss and Brady, don't know that many Broncos. Knowshown Moreno is playing this week, right? He'll do fine because the Patriots defense isn't very good this year. Brandon Marshall will be OK. This game will be dull and worthless with some fake-seeming "thrilling" ending to make it seem like you missed out if you didn't watch it. Broncos 16, Patriots 13.

Indianapolis at Tennessee - Colts rely too much on passing, even if Peyton Manning is the best QB I have ever seen. And the Titans are not legitimately a bad team. C.J. for 200 yds this week? Stop throwing, Tennessee, and you'll be fine. Colts D is over-rated. Play all your normal Colts and play your normal Titans. I don't think any numbers will look off except for the final score: Titans, 31-24.

NY Jets at Miami - Huh? Are they really going to play this? On Monday night? Fine, then. If you've got a lot invested in either of these teams, you're unlucky. Dolphins D will get some turnovers because Rick Mirer and Mark Sanchez are not that dissimilar. Ronnie Brown will get good yardage. Who plays WR and TE for the Dolphins? I don't know, but I'm going to say start Carlester Crumpler. I don't know if he's still in the league and I don't remember if he ever played for either of these teams. I like his name, though. Don't play Braylon Edwards. He's not very good. Miami, 17 - 3.

I'd like to point out how awesome I am at college football for this week. All the games I picked? Right so far. Fuck the Nebraska Cornhuskers but I thought they would win.